@Article{SiqueiraJśniorTomaRodr:2015:ImFuCl,
               author = "Siqueira J{\'u}nior, Jos{\'e} L{\'a}zaro and Tomasella, Javier 
                         and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the 
                         hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin",
              journal = "Climatic Change",
                 year = "2015",
               volume = "129",
                pages = "117--129",
             keywords = "Agriculture, Climate models, Deforestation, Economics, Forestry, 
                         Hydrology, Land use, Rivers, Watersheds.",
             abstract = "Brazilian strategic interest in the Madeira River basin, one of 
                         the most important of the southern Amazon tributaries, includes 
                         the development of hydropower to satisfy the countrys growing 
                         energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and 
                         economic development. Because of evidences that climate change 
                         impacts the hydrological regime of rivers, the aim of this study 
                         was to assess how global climate change and regional land cover 
                         change caused by deforestation could affect the rivers 
                         hydrological regime. To achieve this goal, we calibrated a 
                         large-scale hydrological model for the period from 19701990 and 
                         analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present 
                         hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as 
                         input. Climate change projections produced by climate models were 
                         used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and 
                         without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest 
                         conversion to pasture for the period from 20112099. Although 
                         results show variability among models, consensus scenarios 
                         indicated a decrease in the low-flow regime. When the simulations 
                         included forest conversion to pasture, climate change impacts on 
                         low flows were reduced in the upper basin, while, in the lower 
                         basin, discharges were affected along the whole year due to the 
                         more vigorous land-use conversion in the Brazilian region of the 
                         basin.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10584-015-1338-x",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1338-x",
                 issn = "0165-0009",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}